slum magazine

“Our dreams are a second life.” ~Gerard de Nerval

Second Life vs The World

By Botgirl Questi, in her blog.

Second Life may be the center of the (virtual) world to us, but it’s like a once promising frontier boom town that’s stagnating in the midst of a global explosion of modern metropolises. When I started out in Second Life in 2008, it seemed that it was destined for mainstream acceptance on the heels of incredible user growth, positive press, corporate initiatives by global corporations and what appeared to be a strong commitment by Linden Lab to invest in the future of the platform.

virtual world pie

I was lucky enough to attend a few of the big virtual world industry events in 2008 and 2009. (I still have a Second Life t-shirt I snagged at their booth.) The vision at the time was that the virtual world paradigm would eventually become as ubiqtuous as the 2D internet. I remember sitting at a table with executives from IBM, HP and Northrop, discussing how collaboration in virtual worlds would be a common business practice within a few years. On the consumer side, there were exhibits from dozens of vendors who were investing in new products and services, hoping to cash in on what they saw as a significant near term opportunity.

By the end of 2009, growth and enthusiasm begin to stutter and stall, including Second Life. Despite (or because of) Linden Lab’s repeated attempts over the last four years to regain positive momentum, the downward trend continues. In 2012, Second Life lost over 10% of its regions. The handful of other surviving virtual worlds such as Twinity and Blue Mars have fared even worse. Although OpenSim gets a lot of attention in the virtual world community, it’s just a blip on the map with an estimated 20,000 active users.

During that same period of time, social networks, MMORPGs, casual gaming and even 3D chat services have been growing astronomically and winning users in the millions, tens of millions and even hundreds of millions. In short, the virtual worlds paradigm is an also-ran in the marketplace and there is no indication of a significant positive change for the foreseeable future. That’s why my optimism is for the future we can’t foresee, which will be the focus of the concluding post in this series.

(By the way, I realize that some reader will want to dispute the accuracy of the reported user statistics. I agree that the numbers in the chart are based partially on self-reported figures, various definitions of active users, and very different business models. But you can slice 25% from everyone’s reported numbers and the underlying picture of Second Life vs The World would be the same.)


This is Part Two of a three-part series about the future of virtual worlds, originally published in Botgirl’s Digital Playground.

Go to Virtual Worlds: Is the Dream Over? – Part One
Read Part Three: Who Will Determine the Future of Virtual Worlds?

Advertisements

About slummagazine

slum magazine is about all things Second Life: art, music, news, reviews, shopping, love and life.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Information

This entry was posted on January 17, 2013 by in Reviews & Opinion and tagged , , , , , , , , .

Categories

Enter your email address to follow this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.

Join 237 other followers

%d bloggers like this: